Canada Immigration Levels Plan 2027–2029: What to Expect Before It Is Released

This article is written before the plan's release

As of October 14, 2026, the 2027–2029 Immigration Levels Plan has not been tabled. Figures below come from the 2026–2028 plan and other official sources. Anything about what the new plan "may" do is our analysis, clearly labelled. We will update this page once the plan is public.

What the Levels Plan is, and when it arrives

Every year the federal immigration minister must table an Annual Report to Parliament on Immigration. Under section 94 of the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act, the report must include the number of people projected to become permanent residents in the following year. In practice it contains a three-year plan. The first year is a firm target, and the next two are "notional" targets that are revisited a year later.

The deadline is set in law: on or before November 1, or, if a House of Parliament is not sitting then, within the next 30 days on which that House sits. November 1, 2026 is a Sunday, so the exact tabling day depends on the House calendar. IRCC's own committee briefing from April 2026 says the 2027–2029 plan "will be tabled in fall 2026," and its consultation page says the same.

The 2027 numbers already on paper

The 2026–2028 plan already set notional 2027 targets. IRCC says these "will be confirmed or adjusted by November 1 of each year." That makes the 2027 column below the starting point for the new plan.

Category	2026 target	2027 notional (range)
Overall PR admissions	380,000	380,000 (350,000–420,000)
Economic total	239,800	244,700 (229,000–268,000)
Federal High Skilled (Express Entry)	109,000	111,000 (86,000–122,000)
Provincial Nominee Program	91,500	92,500 (82,000–106,000)
Federal economic pilots	8,175	8,775 (6,600–12,400)
Atlantic Immigration Program	4,000	4,000 (3,000–5,000)
Federal Business	500	500 (250–1,000)
Family total	84,000	81,000 (75,000–90,000)
Spouses, partners and children	69,000	66,000 (60,000–71,000)
Parents and grandparents	15,000	15,000 (13,000–19,000)
Refugees and protected persons	49,300	49,300 (42,000–55,000)
Humanitarian and other	6,900	5,000 (4,000–7,000)
Francophone admissions outside Quebec	9% (30,267)	9.5% (31,825)

Quebec's skilled worker and business numbers are shown as "TBD" because Quebec sets its own targets under the Canada–Quebec Accord. Two one-time initiatives sit outside these totals. About 115,000 protected persons already on a path to PR will be moved through over two years. And up to 33,000 work permit holders will get an accelerated path to PR in 2026 and 2027.

Temporary resident arrivals

New arrivals	2026	2027 notional
Total temporary arrivals	385,000	370,000 (360,000–380,000)
Workers	230,000	220,000
International Mobility Program	170,000	170,000
Temporary Foreign Worker Program	60,000	50,000
Students	155,000	150,000

The pressure point: the 5% temporary resident goal

The government has committed to bringing temporary residents below 5% of Canada's population by the end of 2027. Progress so far:

IRCC told a parliamentary committee in April 2026 that the share had come down from a peak of 7.6% to 6.5% (as of January 1, 2026).
Statistics Canada's preliminary second-quarter estimate, released September 23, 2026, put the number of non-permanent residents at 2,779,774 on July 1, 2026, out of a total population of 41,798,407. That works out to about 6.7%. Statistics Canada notes that preliminary figures are revised later.
In British Columbia, the same release counted 465,514 non-permanent residents out of 5,710,598 people on July 1, 2026, about 8.2% by our calculation. That is higher than the national share.

Our analysis: going from about 6.7% to under 5% in roughly 18 months would mean well over 600,000 fewer temporary residents at today's population size. The 2027–2029 plan will show how the government means to close that gap. The main options are lower temporary arrival targets, more transitions from temporary to permanent status (which count against the PR target), or a later deadline. Each choice matters for people already in Canada on work permits. We cover this in our temporary resident cap guide.

What Canadians and stakeholders were asked

IRCC's consultation for this plan ran from May 12 to June 30, 2026. This year's survey switched to open-ended questions. The published questions show the commitments the department treats as settled. Question 19 lists three:

Reducing the temporary population below 5% of the total by the end of 2027
Stabilizing permanent resident admissions below 1% of the population after 2027
Raising the Francophone admissions target outside Quebec to 12% by 2029

The other open questions asked about regional pressures and demographic trends (Q20), priorities beyond 2029 (Q21) and barriers to good outcomes (Q22). The consultation page lists priorities including refugee protection, family reunification, Francophone immigration outside Quebec, and matching immigration levels to housing, infrastructure and public services capacity, as well as filling labour gaps.

Why the "below 1%" line matters: 1% of a population of about 41.8 million is about 418,000. A PR target of 380,000 sits under that line. The commitment caps how far PR targets could rise after 2027. It does not require a cut.

Seven things to check on release day

The overall 2027 PR target. Is it confirmed at 380,000, or changed? The 1% commitment caps any increase.
The PNP line for 2027 and the first figure for 2029. This is the number that matters most for provincial programs. A drop below 92,500 would squeeze provinces. A higher number gives room for more allocations.
Federal High Skilled. Express Entry admissions affect how much of the economic share goes to federal selection versus provinces. The notional 2027 figure is 111,000.
Temporary arrival targets. Watch whether 2027 is cut below 370,000 and how the worker split (International Mobility Program vs TFWP) changes.
New or extended one-time initiatives. The current 33,000 work permit holder measure covers 2026 and 2027. Any successor would show up here.
Francophone targets. 9.5% is set for 2027 and 10.5% for 2028, on the way to 12% by 2029. A firm 2029 figure would confirm the path. This affects French-speaking candidates in every province; see our French advantage guide.
Supplementary notes on PNP allocations. The plan sets the national total. The provincial split comes later, when IRCC notifies each province of its allocation.

From national target to BC's allocation

A national PNP number does not become BC nominations on the same day. IRCC first tables the plan, then notifies each province of its allocation, and may add mid-year increases. BC's last two cycles show how long that takes:

Date	Event (per WelcomeBC)
Jan 31, 2025	2025 allocation confirmed at 4,000, a 50% reduction from 2024
Oct 2, 2025	1,254 additional nominations for 2025
Dec 15, 2025	960 more; final 2025 allocation 6,214
Dec 18, 2025	2026 allocation set at 5,254; BC had requested 9,000
Aug 18, 2026	1,000 additional; 2026 allocation 6,254, to be used by December 31, 2026

By our arithmetic, BC's current 6,254 is about 6.8% of the 2026 national PNP target of 91,500. Illustration only, not a forecast: if the 2027 national target stayed at 92,500 and BC's share stayed the same, that would point to an allocation of a similar size to 2026's final figure. In practice, BC's opening allocation has been well below its final allocation in both recent years. Allocations are negotiated, and BC has said it "continues to advocate" for more. Our BC PNP 2027 outlook looks at what different allocation outcomes would mean for draws.

The Express Entry piece

The Levels Plan sets how many people come through Express Entry. The categories decide who gets invited. IRCC ran a separate consultation from August 4 to September 1, 2026 on 2027 categories. It asked about expanding efforts to attract highly skilled workers, narrowing the number or eligibility of labour-shortage categories, and keeping the Francophone focus. IRCC's 2026–27 Departmental Plan also mentions developing Express Entry reforms "including the addition of points for job offers." None of this has been finalized. For BC PNP candidates using the Express Entry BC option, the provincial nomination still matters most. Read our Express Entry 2027 guide for the category details.

Three plausible scenarios (analysis)

Scenario	What it would look like	What it would mean for BC PNP candidates
Status quo	2027 notional targets confirmed; small tweaks to TR numbers	Allocation likely similar in scale to 2026; Care/Build/Innovate draws continue at a similar pace
Tighter	Lower TR arrivals and/or a lower economic or PNP line to hit the 5% goal	Fewer nominations and higher cutoffs; work-permit timing becomes urgent
Transition-heavy	PR total held, but more space reserved for people already in Canada	In-Canada workers with B.C. job offers benefit; candidates abroad face more competition

We are not assigning probabilities. The public record supports the first and third scenarios more than the second, because IRCC has consistently described PR as "stabilizing" and has used one-time transition measures. But the temporary resident gap is real, and governments can change course.

What to do before the plan lands

Do not wait for the plan to register. BC PNP registration is free and your place in the pool depends on your score, not the federal plan. Check your score with our BC PNP calculator.
Map your status expiry dates. If your work permit ends in 2027, plan around the slow start to BC PNP draws seen in both 2025 and 2026.
Keep language tests valid. BC PNP results are valid for two years and must be valid at registration to earn points.
Budget for fees. The BC PNP application fee is $1,750. See our PR fees 2027 guide for federal costs.
Have a second route. If your occupation is not a BC priority, compare other provinces in our best provinces for PNP 2027 guide.

Frequently Asked Questions

Has the 2027–2029 Immigration Levels Plan been released?

Not as of October 14, 2026. IRCC says the plan will be tabled in fall 2026. Section 94 of the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act requires the annual report to be tabled by November 1, or, if a House of Parliament is not sitting that day, within its next 30 sitting days. November 1, 2026 falls on a Sunday.

What is the 2027 permanent resident target right now?

The 2026–2028 plan set a notional 2027 target of 380,000 permanent residents (range 350,000 to 420,000), including 244,700 economic immigrants and 92,500 Provincial Nominee Program admissions. IRCC says notional targets are confirmed or adjusted by November 1 each year, so the new plan may change them.

Will the PNP target go up or down in 2027?

We do not know yet. The current notional 2027 PNP target is 92,500, up slightly from 91,500 in 2026, with a range of 82,000 to 106,000. The new plan will confirm or change it. Any forecast before tabling is speculation.

How does the Levels Plan affect my BC PNP chances?

The plan sets the national PNP target. IRCC then gives each province an allocation. BC received 5,254 for 2026 in December 2025 and 1,000 more in August 2026, for a total of 6,254. BC's 2027 allocation will normally follow the new plan and has not been announced.

What is the temporary resident 5% target?

The federal government has committed to reducing temporary residents to less than 5% of Canada's population by the end of 2027. Statistics Canada's preliminary estimate for July 1, 2026 was 2,779,774 non-permanent residents out of 41,798,407 people, or about 6.7%.

Sources

Information current as of October 14, 2026. Program rules change often; confirm on WelcomeBC or IRCC before applying.